If you’re on Medicare, your 2027 Part B premium is projected at $209.50 a month, up $6.60 from this year’s $202.90. That’s a 3.25 percent increase, the smallest bump since 2023. For once, Medicare is not going to eat most of your Social Security COLA.
Enjoy it. It’s not the trend.
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, released June 17, is where the projection lives. Buried inside the same report: Part B premium hikes over the following eight years are projected to average more than double the 2027 pace. The trustees do not say “brace yourself.” They put the numbers in a table and move on. Translation: 2027 is the calm before meaner years.
Here’s what they don’t tell you in the summary. The 2027 projection is not final. CMS makes it official in November, and the trustees have missed before, usually on the high side of what actually landed. But this projection is close enough to plan around. Compare it to last year: the 2025 to 2026 hike came in at 9.7 percent, from $185 to $202.90. That is what a bad year looks like.
For 2027, the projected $6.60 monthly hit is roughly the price of two coffees. It won’t hurt. What might hurt is the surcharge on top.
IRMAA is the extra amount higher-income retirees pay above the standard premium. In 2026, IRMAA ranges from $81.20 to $487 a month on top of the $202.90 base, in five income tiers. CMS looks two years back to set which tier you land in. That means your 2027 IRMAA is decided by your 2025 modified adjusted gross income, the number on the 2025 tax return you already filed by April 2026.
Single filers whose 2025 MAGI cleared roughly $106,000, or couples above $212,000, get an IRMAA surcharge in 2027. The tiers pile up fast. A large Roth conversion in 2025, an unusual capital gain, or an inherited IRA distribution can push a retiree over a bracket line and cost thousands over the year. IRMAA is a cliff, not a slope. One dollar across a line, and the monthly premium jumps by a fixed amount.
Do this now. Pull your 2025 tax return. Check your MAGI against the projected 2027 IRMAA thresholds when CMS publishes them in November. If you’re close to a bracket line and you have any 2026 income timing flexibility left this year, talk to a CPA about accelerating deductions or spreading income into 2027 to keep 2026 MAGI under the next threshold. You’ll be looking at 2028’s bill by then, but the same rules apply: today’s income sets the surcharge two years out.
If your income is nowhere near IRMAA territory, you don’t need to do anything. File this away for November. On the standard premium, your 2027 out-of-pocket for Part B lands at about $2,514 for the full year, up from $2,435. Not fun. Real money.
The reason 2027 looks tame and 2028 through the mid-2030s do not is medical inflation, tariff exposure on drug and device supply chains, and Medicare Advantage overpayments Congress has not addressed. Look at our retirement guides for the moves that still work.
Know your MAGI. Not optional.
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